Certainty Holds Us Back: Liminality and the Certainty Bias

Liminality, certainty, and the space between who we were and who we are becoming.

One of my favorite concepts in the field of aging is liminality. A brief refresher: liminality refers to the state of being “in-between”, on the threshold, neither in one space nor another. And with that comes great possibility and freedom to disengage from prior roles and expectations and forge an authentic path ahead. This is one of the great gifts of aging. So why is it so hard to leverage?

This led me to a bigger question. Why is changing so hard? And this led me to explore the certainty bias. The certainty bias is the tendency to favor known options over the unknown, even when the unknown has a higher likelihood of producing a more favorable outcome. We tend to choose what we know over what we don’t know, often hurting our future selves. This bias shows up in every area of our lives, and it holds us back. Yet from an evolutionary perspective it makes sense. What we know feels safe. But then we equate what we know with what is safe. We end up protecting the present (what we know) at the expense of the future.

As we age, certainty bias provides protection.  It allows us to preserve an identity we’ve grown into over many years and protects us from the unknown. Yet it is precisely the unknown where our potential lies. When we cling to certainty, we stop asking ourselves what is possible, who might I be or what might I do if fear of the unknown wasn’t holding me back. We lose our agency in defining ourselves and our lives. We become caretakers of what is, not creators of what might be. We lose our ability to take advantage of the boundless state of liminality. Again, we protect the present at the expense of the future.

The 19^th century poet Baudelaire famously wrote (English translation) “the devil’s finest trick is to persuade you that he does not exist.”  In parallel, the certainty bias’s best trick is to make us think that future benefit does not exist. It tricks us into thinking that inaction or keeping the status quo for our own lives isn’t a choice. But staying with what is known and comfortable is indeed a choice, one that bears consequences. Over time, consequences compound, until at some point our options and opportunities narrow or go away entirely. One more time, we protect the present at the expense of the future.

As we age we need to ask ourselves not “what feels safest right now” but “what helps me remain resilient over time”? In this mindset, the capacity for growth expands rather than diminishes. Don’t get me wrong, we don’t need to let go of the certainty bias entirely, we just need to lessen our grip and be open to the gifts a different future can bring.